An economic evaluation of Wolbachia deployments for dengue control in Vietnam

INTRODUCTION: Dengue is a major public health challenge and a growing problem due to climate change. The release of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with the intracellular bacterium Wolbachia is a novel form of vector control against dengue. However, there remains a need to evaluate the benefits of such an intervention at a large scale. In this paper, we evaluate the potential economic impact and cost-effectiveness of scaled Wolbachia deployments as a form of dengue control in Vietnam-targeted at the highest burden urban areas. METHODS: Ten settings within Vietnam were identified as priority locations for potential future Wolbachia deployments (using a population replacement strategy). The effectiveness of Wolbachia deployments in reducing the incidence of symptomatic dengue cases was assumed to be 75%. We assumed that the intervention would maintain this effectiveness for at least 20 years (but tested this assumption in the sensitivity analysis). A cost-utility analysis and cost-benefit analysis were conducted. RESULTS: From the health sector perspective, the Wolbachia intervention was projected to cost US$420 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. From the societal perspective, the overall cost-effectiveness ratio was negative, i.e. the economic benefits outweighed the costs. These results are contingent on the long-term effectiveness of Wolbachia releases being sustained for 20 years. However, the intervention was still classed as cost-effective across the majority of the settings when assuming only 10 years of benefits. CONCLUSION: Overall, we found that targeting high burden cities with Wolbachia deployments would be a cost-effective intervention in Vietnam and generate notable broader benefits besides health gains

Epidemiologic application of verbal autopsy to investigate the high occurrence of cancer along Huai River Basin, China

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In 2004, the media repeatedly reported water pollution and "cancer villages" along the Huai River in China. Due to the lack of death records for more than 30 years, a retrospective survey of causes of death using verbal autopsy was carried out to investigate cancer rates in this area.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An epidemiologic study was designed to compare numbers of deaths and causes of death between the study areas with water pollution and the control areas without water pollution in S County and Y District in 2005. The study areas were selected based on the distribution of the Huai River and its tributaries. Verbal autopsy was used to assist cause of death (COD) diagnoses and to verify mortality rates. The standard mortality rates (SMRs) of cancer in the study area were compared with those in the control areas. In order to verify the difference between mortality rates due to cancers in the study and the control areas, patients who reported having cancer in the survey received a second diagnosis by national and provincial oncologists with pathological and laboratory examinations. Comparisons were made to determine if differential cancer prevalence rates in the study and control areas were similar to the difference in mortality due to cancer in these study and control areas. Mortality rates of cancers in study and control areas were also compared with national statistics for the rural population of China.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Over five years, 3,301 deaths were identified, including 1,158 cancer deaths. The annual average SMRs of cancer in the study areas of S County and Y District were 277.8/100,000 and 223.6/100,000, respectively, which is three to four times higher than those in the control areas. In addition, a total of 626 cases of cancer in the study and control areas were confirmed. The prevalence rates of cancer were 545/100,000 and 128.1/100,000 per year in the study and control areas in S County, respectively, and 440.9/100,000 and 200/100,000 per year in the study and control areas in Y District, respectively. The mortality and prevalence rates of digestive cancers were higher in the study areas than the control areas. In 2000, the SMR for cancer in rural areas nationwide was 120.9/100,000, and in study areas in S County and Y District, the excess rates of deaths were 184/100,000 and 138.8/100,000, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The death rates of digestive cancers were much higher in the study areas of S County and Y District. The patterns for between-area differences in prevalence and mortality rates of cancer were similar. Verbal autopsy is shown to be a useful tool in retrospective mortality surveys in low-resource areas with limited access to health care.</p

Mortality patterns in Vietnam, 2006: Findings from a national verbal autopsy survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Accurate nationally representative statistics on total and cause-specific mortality in Vietnam are lacking due to incomplete capture in government reporting systems. This paper presents total and cause-specific mortality results from a national verbal autopsy survey conducted first time in Vietnam in conjunction with the annual population change survey and discusses methodological and logistical challenges associated with the implementation of a nation-wide assessment of mortality based on surveys.</p> <p>Verbal autopsy interviews, using the WHO standard questionnaire, were conducted with close relatives of the 6798 deaths identified in the 2007 population change survey in Vietnam. Data collectors were health staff recruited from the commune health station who undertook 3-day intensive training on VA interview. The Preston-Coale method assessed the level of completeness of mortality reporting from the population change survey. The number of deaths in each age-sex grouping is inflated according to the estimate of completeness to produce an <it>adjusted </it>number of deaths. Underlying causes of death were aggregated to the International Classification of Diseases Mortality Tabulation List 1. Leading causes of death were tabulated by sex for three broad age groups: 0-14 years; 15-59 years; and 60 years and above.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>Completeness of mortality reporting was 69% for males and 54% for females with substantial regional variation. The use of VA has resulted in 10% of deaths being classified to ill-defined among males, and 15% among females. More ill-defined deaths were reported among the 60 year or above age group. Incomplete death reporting, wide geographical dispersal of deaths, extensive travel between households, and substantial variation in local responses to VA interviews challenged the implementation of a national mortality and cause of death assessment based on surveys.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Verbal autopsy can be a viable tool to identify cause of death in Vietnam. However logistical challenges limit its use in conjunction with the national sample survey. Sentinel population clusters for mortality surveillance should be tested to develop an effective and sustainable option for routine mortality and cause of death data collection in Vietnam.</p

Causes of Mortality for Indonesian Hajj Pilgrims: Comparison between Routine Death Certificate and Verbal Autopsy Findings

10.1371/journal.pone.0073243PLoS ONE88-POLN

Performance of InterVA for assigning causes of death to verbal autopsies: multisite validation study using clinical diagnostic gold standards

Background: InterVA is a widely disseminated tool for cause of death attribution using information from verbal autopsies. Several studies have attempted to validate the concordance and accuracy of the tool, but the main limitation of these studies is that they compare cause of death as ascertained through hospital record review or hospital discharge diagnosis with the results of InterVA. This study provides a unique opportunity to assess the performance of InterVA compared to physician-certified verbal autopsies (PCVA) and alternative automated methods for analysis.Methods: Using clinical diagnostic gold standards to select 12,542 verbal autopsy cases, we assessed the performance of InterVA on both an individual and population level and compared the results to PCVA, conducting analyses separately for adults, children, and neonates. Following the recommendation of Murray et al., we randomly varied the cause composition over 500 test datasets to understand the performance of the tool in different settings. We also contrasted InterVA with an alternative Bayesian method, Simplified Symptom Pattern (SSP), to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the tool.Results: Across all age groups, InterVA performs worse than PCVA, both on an individual and population level. On an individual level, InterVA achieved a chance-corrected concordance of 24.2% for adults, 24.9% for children, and 6.3% for neonates (excluding free text, considering one cause selection). On a population level, InterVA achieved a cause-specific mortality fraction accuracy of 0.546 for adults, 0.504 for children, and 0.404 for neonates. The comparison to SSP revealed four specific characteristics that lead to superior performance of SSP. Increases in chance-corrected concordance are attained by developing cause-by-cause models (2%), using all items as opposed to only the ones that mapped to InterVA items (7%), assigning probabilities to clusters of symptoms (6%), and using empirical as opposed to expert probabilities (up to 8%).Conclusions: Given the widespread use of verbal autopsy for understanding the burden of disease and for setting health intervention priorities in areas that lack reliable vital registrations systems, accurate analysis of verbal autopsies is essential. While InterVA is an affordable and available mechanism for assigning causes of death using verbal autopsies, users should be aware of its suboptimal performance relative to other methods

Verbal autopsy completion rate and factors associated with undetermined cause of death in a rural resource-poor setting of Tanzania

UNLABELLED\ud \ud ABSTRACT:\ud \ud BACKGROUND\ud \ud Verbal autopsy (VA) is a widely used tool to assign probable cause of death in areas with inadequate vital registration systems. Its uses in priority setting and health planning are well documented in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Asia. However, there is a lack of data related to VA processing and completion rates in assigning causes of death in a community. There is also a lack of data on factors associated with undetermined causes of death documented in SSA. There is a need for such information for understanding the gaps in VA processing and better estimating disease burden.\ud \ud OBJECTIVE\ud \ud The study's intent was to determine the completion rate of VA and factors associated with assigning undetermined causes of death in rural Tanzania.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud A database of deaths reported from the Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance System from 2002 to 2007 was used. Completion rates were determined at the following stages of processing: 1) death identified; 2) VA interviews conducted; 3) VA forms submitted to physicians; 4) coding and assigning of cause of death. Logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with deaths coded as "undetermined."\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud The completion rate of VA after identification of death and the VA interview ranged from 83% in 2002 and 89% in 2007. Ninety-four percent of deaths submitted to physicians were assigned a specific cause, with 31% of the causes coded as undetermined. Neonates and child deaths that occurred outside health facilities were associated with a high rate of undetermined classification (33%, odds ratio [OR] = 1.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] (1.05, 1.67), p = 0.016). Respondents reporting high education levels were less likely to be associated with deaths that were classified as undetermined (24%, OR = 0.76, 95% CI (0.60, -0.96), p = 0.023). Being a child of the deceased compared to a partner (husband or wife) was more likely to be associated with undetermined cause of death classification (OR = 1.35, 95% CI (1.04, 1.75), p = 0.023).\ud \ud CONCLUSION\ud \ud Every year, there is a high completion rate of VA in the initial stages of processing; however, a number of VAs are lost during the processing. Most of the losses occur at the final step, physicians' determination of cause of death. The type of respondent and place of death had a significant effect on final determination of the plausible cause of death. The finding provides some insight into the factors affecting full coverage of verbal autopsy diagnosis and the limitations of causes of death based on VA in SSA. Although physician review is the most commonly used method in ascertaining probable cause of death, we suggest further work needs to be done to address the challenges faced by physicians in interpreting VA forms. There is need for an alternative to or improvement of the methods of physician review

Robust metrics for assessing the performance of different verbal autopsy cause assignment methods in validation studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Verbal autopsy (VA) is an important method for obtaining cause of death information in settings without vital registration and medical certification of causes of death. An array of methods, including physician review and computer-automated methods, have been proposed and used. Choosing the best method for VA requires the appropriate metrics for assessing performance. Currently used metrics such as sensitivity, specificity, and cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) errors do not provide a robust basis for comparison.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We use simple simulations of populations with three causes of death to demonstrate that most metrics used in VA validation studies are extremely sensitive to the CSMF composition of the test dataset. Simulations also demonstrate that an inferior method can appear to have better performance than an alternative due strictly to the CSMF composition of the test set.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>VA methods need to be evaluated across a set of test datasets with widely varying CSMF compositions. We propose two metrics for assessing the performance of a proposed VA method. For assessing how well a method does at individual cause of death assignment, we recommend the average chance-corrected concordance across causes. This metric is insensitive to the CSMF composition of the test sets and corrects for the degree to which a method will get the cause correct due strictly to chance. For the evaluation of CSMF estimation, we propose CSMF accuracy. CSMF accuracy is defined as one minus the sum of all absolute CSMF errors across causes divided by the maximum total error. It is scaled from zero to one and can generalize a method's CSMF estimation capability regardless of the number of causes. Performance of a VA method for CSMF estimation by cause can be assessed by examining the relationship across test datasets between the estimated CSMF and the true CSMF.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>With an increasing range of VA methods available, it will be critical to objectively assess their performance in assigning cause of death. Chance-corrected concordance and CSMF accuracy assessed across a large number of test datasets with widely varying CSMF composition provide a robust strategy for this assessment.</p

Epidemiology of chronic kidney disease in children

In the past 30 years there have been major improvements in the care of children with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, most of the available epidemiological data stem from end-stage renal disease (ESRD) registries and information on the earlier stages of pediatric CKD is still limited. The median reported incidence of renal replacement therapy (RRT) in children aged 0–19 years across the world in 2008 was 9 per million of the age-related population (4–18 years). The prevalence of RRT in 2008 ranged from 18 to 100 per million of the age-related population. Congenital disorders, including congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (CAKUT) and hereditary nephropathies, are responsible for about two thirds of all cases of CKD in developed countries, while acquired causes predominate in developing countries. Children with congenital disorders experience a slower progression of CKD than those with glomerulonephritis, resulting in a lower proportion of CAKUT in the ESRD population compared with less advanced stages of CKD. Most children with ESRD start on dialysis and then receive a transplant. While the survival rate of children with ERSD has improved, it remains about 30 times lower than that of healthy peers. Children now mainly die of cardiovascular causes and infection rather than from renal failure

Use of multidimensional item response theory methods for dementia prevalence prediction: an example using the Health and Retirement Survey and the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study.

BACKGROUND: Data sparsity is a major limitation to estimating national and global dementia burden. Surveys with full diagnostic evaluations of dementia prevalence are prohibitively resource-intensive in many settings. However, validation samples from nationally representative surveys allow for the development of algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence nationally. METHODS: Using cognitive testing data and data on functional limitations from Wave A (2001-2003) of the ADAMS study (n = 744) and the 2000 wave of the HRS study (n = 6358) we estimated a two-dimensional item response theory model to calculate cognition and function scores for all individuals over 70. Based on diagnostic information from the formal clinical adjudication in ADAMS, we fit a logistic regression model for the classification of dementia status using cognition and function scores and applied this algorithm to the full HRS sample to calculate dementia prevalence by age and sex. RESULTS: Our algorithm had a cross-validated predictive accuracy of 88% (86-90), and an area under the curve of 0.97 (0.97-0.98) in ADAMS. Prevalence was higher in females than males and increased over age, with a prevalence of 4% (3-4) in individuals 70-79, 11% (9-12) in individuals 80-89 years old, and 28% (22-35) in those 90 and older. CONCLUSIONS: Our model had similar or better accuracy as compared to previously reviewed algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence in HRS, while utilizing more flexible methods. These methods could be more easily generalized and utilized to estimate dementia prevalence in other national surveys